Contact reporter Tony Davis at tdavis@tucson.com or 806-7746. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years., THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. The April-July forecast for Colorado River runoff into Lake Powell is 74 percent of average. Credit: Alex Hager. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. a study published in the journal Science said the current dry period in the Southwest is one for the record books, and that its "megadrought-like trajectory" is fueled by natural variability superimposed on . Arizona's environmental agency plans to legalize direct treatment of wastewater for drinking as soon as the end of this year. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. On top of the hydropower the lake generates, its the source of drinking water for the 7,500 residents of Page, Az., and the 1,443 members of the LeChee chapter of the Navajo Nation. Plastic milk jugs inexplicably dangle from the tops of the dead trees along the shore. This year, because things have been so dry some of the states in the Colorado River watershed have had the driest year on record over the last year, and thats left the soil incredibly parched. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. But it plays a huge role in the Colorado River basin. Tanya Trujillo, the departments assistant secretary, sent a letter to the seven states in the Colorado River basin warning of cutbacks to the water supply for Nevada, Arizona and California. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. Udall questioned the validity of using the years before 2000 because the years 1990 to 1999 were very wet and not representative of the weather we see now. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. If the reservoirs reach dead-pool levels, more than a million people using the electricity could be required to find new power sources. VigLink sets this cookie to show users relevant advertisements and also limit the number of adverts that are shown to them. Page mayor: Lake Powell is not drying up. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". With the reservoirs approaching their lowest levels in modern history, that brings us to our final number: 2026. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Such is the nature of the climate change beast that we have unleashed.. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. At 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam reaches "minimum power pool." Luke, well continue to follow your reporting. Since Lake Powell is primarily sandstone, the lake actually leaks water into the porous rocks. "That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.". Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. Below 3,490 feet of elevation, Lake Powell dips into a zone where the generation of hydropower by water flowing through the Glen Canyon Dam becomes unreliable. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. what little rain and snow has fallen dries . Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. So it just throws the whole system into much greater uncertainty and a bit of chaos.. Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. All told, about 40 million people in the region depend on the Colorado River and its tributaries, not to mention the fish and the birds and the other wildlife that depend on its water as well. In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. Nancy Selover, Arizonas state climatologist, says the Upper Basin figure is concerning because that accounts for the rivers headwaters. Luke covers the Colorado River basin. Whether the six-year cycle of 2000-05 repeats itself is anybodys guess, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. And that sponge is very dry right now, and its sucking up all of that water before it can be used as water supply. Luke Runyon is the water reporter at KUNC in Greeley, Colorado. We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. He says such measures can help, for sure. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. LUKE RUNYON: So seven US states make up the Colorado River basin. A recent Bureau of Reclamation forecast overstated projections for water use reductions in the region. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. Pause your chores until you have a full-load for the dishwasher. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. "It's tough to see," Levy told 12News. Its important to differentiate between Lake Powell running dry versus Lake Powell dropping below elevation 3,490 [feet], Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy, told The Hill in an interview. Throughout the history of the American West, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities. Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. And as we warm even further, it makes it that much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover. And thats really what were watching right now, is how low is Lake Mead going to go? People should definitely not feel like the agencies managing the Colorado River have it under control, he said. Fidelity to the original aired/published audio or video file might vary, and text might be updated or amended in the future. This is when were supposed to be gaining and accumulating water in the form of snowpack, and thats not happening, Selover said. It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. What states, what tribal nations, does this cut through? : Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. The word unprecedented gets thrown around a lot in discussions about the Colorado River these days, and this is no exception. Now what? Lake Powell is the town's lifeline. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. The second largest reservoir in the U.S. by total capacity after Lake Mead, Lake Powell spans the Utah/Arizona border, and is an artificial lake created from damming the Colorado River. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. The Bureau's projections show a 3% chance that Lake Powell's water levels fall below the minimum level necessary for the lake's Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydroelectricity next year. JOHN DANKOSKY: This is Science Friday. The Hoover Dam is therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead approaches deadpool levels. Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. What about the idea of a water shortage? The climate crisis is forcing both federal and state governments to make tough choices and take. Explain that a little bit for us, Luke, and just how dire the situation is for the groundwater in the region. That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Conditions have been deteriorating across the river basin since the summer of 2020. JOHN DANKOSKY: Local science stories of national significance. I mean, what sort of disputes are coming to the forefront because of this? The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting. Lake Mead is the nation's largest reservoir, a companion to Lake Powell. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. Things will have to change in how we do business.. The river is a lifeline, providing water to more than . Together, these reservoirs, fed by the mighty Colorado River, provide the water 40million Americans depend on. Okay. It survives, she said. Nimbull: It dries up a lot of people will be hit with high priced water in stores. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Lake Powell is in crisis. Dead pool is 3,370 feet. Lake Powell, the country's second-largest reservoir and a key source of water and power for much of the West, is more parched than ever.Earlier this month, the lake dropped below 25% capacity . Federal and state officials have committed to a more inclusive process that integrates the needs of tribes, environmental and recreation groups, and Mexico. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. In those cases, what's revealed is the dry and dusty lake-bedwhich can be a problem in its own right. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. But Lake Powell's current water level is the lowest since it was first filled almost 60 years ago. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, so this is something that is harder for us to visualize, because were so used to looking at reservoirs and rivers. The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. However, the receding water levels have already greatly reduced the reservoirs generating capacity, to about 800 megawattsabout 60 percent. Thats the first time it has ever dipped below the buffer elevation of 3,525. While levels are on a long downward trend, they fluctuate with the seasons. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. But after more than two decades of drought it is now less than 1,050 feet the lowest since the lake was filled, and falling about a foot a week. LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. And you know, those are cutbacks that users are actually going to feel and that municipal leaders, farmers, tribal users in Arizona are having to plan for right now. Grim Future for Lake Powell Water levels in Lake Powell are at record lows. JOHN DANKOSKY: So Colorado is obviously the name of this water system, but for people who dont know the Colorado River, maybe just give us a little geography lesson. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. During the 2000-2005 drought, Lake Powell lost 13 million acre-feet of water and dropped almost 100 feet. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. This is the highest percentage of land in the rivers Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the regions driest year on record. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. Forecasts dont paint a pretty picture for snowpack either. They both use water from the Colorado River. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. As a key ingredient in everything from asphalt to microchips, scientists are trying to make sand extraction more ecologically friendly. Lake Mead's level is 1,047 feet above sea level. The challenges are really hard, Fleck said. Azure sets this cookie for routing production traffic by specifying the production slot. What would constitute that? And its split into two watersheds. Lake Mead, which is fed by Lake Powell upstream, would likely be the first of the two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. 2002, 2018 and 2021 are the most intense dry periods on record for the basin. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. This story was reported by Luke Runyon on KUNC. Drought contingency plans for the Upper and Lower Basin are now in use. works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. So water from the Colorado River is now pumped across the state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project (CAP). A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. This cookie is used for storing country code selected from country selector. Skip Navigation. This website uses cookies to improve your experience. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. Lake Powell has been called "Jewel of the Colorado" by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. Some experts think attempting to generate hydropower at that level could cause damage to equipment inside the dam by allowing air pockets into the turbines that generate electricity. The nations second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. The Nature Conservancy receives some funding from the Walton Family Foundation, which also provides funding to KUNC for reporting on the Colorado River. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. She compares the current drought conditions to 2018, another record-breaking hot and dry year just a couple years ago. Kathryn Sorensen, research director at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, said it will push water managers further in the direction of finding more permanent solutions. Lake powell has an electrical generation station there. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. The test_cookie is set by doubleclick.net and is used to determine if the user's browser supports cookies. "The federal government generally prefers to let the stakeholders work things through, Sorensen said. While levels are slipping dangerously low through, Sorensen said keep you connected to original! Two reservoirs to hit dead-pool levels disputes are coming to the weekly point. River has been falling for decades state of Arizona via the Central Arizona Project for comment for a hike the... Mayor: Lake Powell is not drying up word unprecedented gets thrown around a lot of people a!, water issues have shown their ability to both unite and divide communities it. `` the highest of. Question is, how bad is it going to get helping to our... Much harder for our infrastructure, our water storage, to recover nations! Pressure from climate change and steady demand, and just how dire situation. 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